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With one pen, any man can rule...

A Word from The Writer:

The Monday Analysis  - 18 July 2005

Just a week or so until training camps, and already great news from the Patriots!

Safety in Numbers: Pioli Extends with Pats

Pieces of the puzzle make a picture. And so it is with the three-time Super Bowl champion Patriots, when the Krafts have extended VP of Player Personnel Scott Pioli's contract for an undisclosed term.

Pioli's contract ran through the end of the 2006 season, and while being courted by other teams around the league, Pioli insisted on seeing his current contract out. Pioli is a two-time NFL Executive of the Year winner. Pioli has been with the Patriots since 2000.

NFL, Networks Work New TV Deal

Long term packages between the NFL and the television networks were finalized this offseason, with the NFL returning to NBC for the Sunday Showcase game. ESPN has agreed to adopt the Monday night game, in a move by the league unofficially officially make Sunday a complete day of football. Sunday night games will start at 8:15 PM EST. They also have flexible scheduling for the final seven weeks of the season, giving teams a nightmare for travel and stadium preparations.

Says NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue: "These agreements improve our television arrangements for fans. ... In the current media environment, Sunday is now the better night for our prime-time broadcast package. The earlier kickoff times for both packages, NBC's Sunday night programming devoted to the NFL, and flexible scheduling for Sunday night are all positive changes. ESPN will continue to do a tremendous job of reaching a wide audience on basic cable with Monday Night Football."

NBC also gets two Super Bowls: XLIII in 2009 and XLVI in 2012. The Peacock Network has already signed John Madden as an analyst. God knows why.

New six-year deals for CBS and FOX were announced on November 6, 2004, extending those contracts through the 2011 season.

NFL Network to Air Preseason

In a continued show of dominance in subscription television, NFL Network will air 55 preseason games in 25 days. This number counts for all but 11 games that are nationally televised.

For a complete schedule of the games, go to the NFL Network Preseason schedule: http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/8581089.

Bills Deal Disgruntle Henry to Titans

Buffalo has dealt running back Travis Henry to Tennessee, pending the passing of a physical, for a third round pick in the 2006 Draft..

The Bills drafted Henry in 2001 in the second round, and proved a quality back, rushing 1300 yards in 2002 and 2003. Henry started five games in 2004, then sat out the final five games due to injury. However, in a bizarre draft move, the Bills drafted Willis McGahee in 2003 in the first round with McGahee coming off ACL surgery. he sat on the bench in 2003, but joined the team in 2004 with decent numbers (fill in here), and the team opted to keep the former Hurricane as their featured back. The arrival of McGahee made life in the running back corner awkward, and Henry insisted on being dealt elsewhere this off season, promising to sit out until the Bills traded him. While the Bills insisted they wanted to keep Henry on the roster, Henry left Buffalo little options.

"We're really glad that it's over," Bills GM Tom Donahoe said. "Tennessee gave us the best offer and gave us really what we were looking for."

Tennessee suffered lack of a running back in 2004 after Eddie George was released, and later signed by Dallas. Antowain Smith played for the Titans in 2004, but was released in the off season, and signed by the Saints. Henry gives the Titans' running game some much needed spark.

League Movements

Jets cornerback Donnie Abraham has decided to retire. Abraham started his career in Tampa, and spent the past three seasons in New Jersey. He stated family time as the reason for the retirement...Dallas traded CB Pete Hunter to the Jets for a conditional draft pick...

Training Camp Division Talk: The NFC South

NFC South
Atlanta (11-5)
New Orleans (8-8)
Carolina (7-9)
Tampa Bay (5-11)

2004 Division Champion: Atlanta
Wild Card Team(s): None

The NFC South is one of those up and a lot of down divisions that drives football fans crazy. In 2002, Tampa Bay won Super Bowl XXXVII in a classic, couldn't-write-this-scenario-better matchup with head coach Jon Gruden battling - and destroying - his former team, the Oakland Raiders. The following season, the Bucs fell flat, but Carolina rises near the top and loses to New England in arguably the greatest Super Bowl ever. The next year, Tampa stinks worse, Carolina trips and fumbles before having a late season resurgence that comes up short to the playoffs, but Atlanta emerges as a new powerhouse in 2004 under new coach Jim Mora. The Falcons lose to Philly in the NFC Championship that does nothing but tick the dirty birds off putting chips on their shoulders bigger than the league itself. And New Orleans, well, the Cajun food has always been better in that town than the football. Isn't that right, Archie "Can't Win" Manning?

Still, the Bucs are due a resurgence - or Jon Gruden had better get something happening if he wants to keep his BucGear. The Saints have improved - for the Saints - to back to back 8-8 seasons, but it seems to be the most long-winded project in the league. Carolina should not be counted out. I've no faith in Jake Delhomme as a quarterback, and he took too long to come around as a starting quarterback, but he is able to manage the game efficiently enough and not turn the ball over, as well being able to make a play downfield when needed. The Panthers endured a lot of injuries in 2004, which cannot be the excuse in 2005. In Atlanta, Mora needs to ride the Mike Vick pony express for as long as that horse is healthy. Mobile quarterbacks like Vick have a short shelf life, and taking the Falcons to Philly last January was a huge leap forward. Now, they need to push the envelope a little further and get to Detroit, but anything short of Super Bowl XL is considered a failure.

But worse, Vick was a terrible passer in 2004 with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a dismal 56.4 completion rating for a 78.1 QB rating, giving the Atlanta passing game a real stinker of a ranking at Number 30 in the league. If not for Vick's 900 plus rushing yards with 3 TDs he'd have been benched. The argument is that Vick shows signs of a poor quarterback. Drew Bledsoe's numbers were better in 2004 and he had far less to work with and people crucify him.

No Falcon receiver was in double digits for touchdown, and in order to break through to Detroit, passing must improve and quarterback rushing must be kept at bay, or in the pocket as it were.

The upside in Atlanta is that defense and the management. Jim Mora, Jr. has a great handle on this game, and could drive the Falcons to a Super Bowl win down the stretch. Improvements are needed in the offensive line, the running back minus Vick, and ultimately passing. Vick and Mora need to utilize Vick's strong arm to get the ball downfield for those big plays Vick normally makes on his feet, and to abandon the running game and go for the short screen passes to the smaller receivers and tight ends. If the Falcons can move that ball more effectively without a Vick rushing record, Atlanta is the dominate power in the NFC.

Carolina suffers from a similar problem. Their leading receiver, Muhsin Muhammad was released for cap reasons and signed with Chicago. Muhammad scored 15 TDs in 2004, and while that number is bloated due to season ending injuries on the roster, that is still going to be a big hole to fill. Jake Delhomme can get the ball to receivers, and get it down field, but lack of hand-talent in the receiver corps puts added pressure for the running game to succeed. Fortunately, John Fox's philosophy is to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. Carolina suffered lots of injuries in 2004, and went sub .500 after losing Super Bowl XXXVIII to New England.

The NFC South could be the most competitive - and stable division in football. There were no coaching changes this offseason, in fact, Jim Haslett received an extension. Don't expect any extensions next year for Haslett with anything less than a +.500 season, especially after his offseason admissions to steroid use as a player in Pittsburgh. That had to irk some front office folks in the Big Easy.

It will be difficult to get the division lead position away from Atlanta. The Dirty Birds are walking around feeling insulted and disrespected, and we all know where that train of thought originates from and where it gets you (for more information on this topic, see the 2001 World Champion New England Patriots). Atlanta also looks the strongest, with a quiet off season of little doom and gloom, a healthy Mike Vick, and something else, maybe about the defense. Mora needs to motivate his receivers and improve the run in order to keep Vick from having to win the game, and by that I mean Vick needs to be a quarterback first, and human highlight film second. The offense needs to limit Vick's rushing totals by making a plays on their own. There is nothing wrong with making a play, but scrambling quarterbacks get killed, and we have several years of Mike Vick film to study from now, so there is very little that anyone has not seem.

Tampa Bay has gone back to the old disappointments of the league, after years of up swing, thanks to former coach Tony Dungy. Insert Jon Gruden and that equals a Lombardi Trophy, which now looks like a joke. The Buccaneers are not the Bucs that won Super Bowl XXXVII. But those Bucs were also Tony Dungy and Rick McKay's Bucs. Gruden and GM Bruce Allen is rebuilding the team using players more suited for Gruden's system, similar to what he had in Oakland. A number of Dungy Bucs are gone who did not fit in with the Gruden Bucs - Keyshawn Johnson, John Lynch, and Warren Sapp didn't catch on enough to stay in Tampa, while veteran signings like Tim Brown turned out to be dud. Gruden signed Brian Griese to a long contract this off season and released Super Bowl quarterback Brad Johnson. He also has Chris Simms waiting in the wings to be the next coming of Phil Simms. The problem is, as we've seen on NFL Films, that Simms can't pronounce the damned plays never mind remember them. And Gruden has been around Brett Favre, Steve Young, and Rich Gannon who got the plays right the first time, so there's zero patience and tolerance. But in terms of Gruden and his continued presence with Tampa, he needs to get back to the playoffs, without question. Tampa must resurge fast. Gruden is in poor company with producing the first back-to-back losing season since the days of Sam Wyche in the early 1990s.

Carolina found the momentum late last season, winning six of eight, and just missing the playoffs. They did this with missing parts, a flood of personnel on injured reserve. What the Panthers need to do now is win in their division, and find new receivers in the end zone.

If Jim Haslett wants to continue to be a head coach, he needs a solid 9-7 season, 10-6 is preferred. Many were surprised Haslett was not let go last season, but winning the final four games kept him employed, and instead he received a contract extension. Furthermore, the Saints are staying in New Orleans for the time being, but they still flirt with the idea of leaving town, specifically Los Angeles (The LA Saints?).

New Orleans is loaded with tons of paper talent. Aaron Brooks isn't carrying his team like other quarterbacks can, and Joe Horn had 11 receptions, that isn't bad, but Dante Stallworth stalled at 5 TDs. Deuce McAllister rushed for 1074 yards and 9 TDs over 14 games. Antowain Smith joins the running game, most likely as a third down and change of pace back.

Next Week: AFC South

Top Ten List of the Week

1. The Pioli Extension. 31 teams in the league just groaned in depression.

2. Travis Henry was in a tight situation in Buffalo. I never liked the McGahee drafting, but there again, I don't like a lot that Tom Donahue does up there.

3. Sunday, July 24th is Stage 20 of the Tour de France. Keep it going, Lance!

4. One of the coolest moments of the Tour so far is Stage 15, with Discovery Channel's George Hincapie narrowly winning at the end. It marks the first time a teammate of Lance Armstrong's has won a stage since before 1999 when Armstrong won his first tour.

5. The more I think about the Bucs signing of Jon Gruden in January 2002, the more I believe that the Glazers really, really overpaid for that Lombardi Trophy. The championship looks like a joke now. Tampa has not been competitive since, and they've dismantled the nucleus that won that year. The rebuilding looks more like a film, "The Money Pit." The renovations just never end.

6. Still unsigned: Ty Law. Anyone surprised?

7. What happened to the Red Sox?

8. Yeah, hockey's back. Yeah, whoopee, way to go, snore....

9. Atlanta's offensive line must work at giving Mike Vick time to get the ball to a real running back or receiver so that his rushing totals drop to quarterback numbers not change of pace back numbers. In turn, Vick needs to make plays with his arm, and not his legs.

10. Just another week or so until training camps open!

ejh

18 July 2005

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