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| A Word from The Writer: The Monday Analysis - 11 July 2005 Another week, some more divisional talk. First, we pay tribute to a hall of famer. Hall of Fame coach Stram dies The first head coach for the Kansas City chiefs Hall of Fame coach Hank Stram died July 3rd at his home in New Orleans. He was 82. Stram, known to pace the sidelines in a blazer and the game plan rolled up in his hand, led the Chiefs to AFL titles in 1962, 1966, and 1969, to Super Bowl I in a loss to Green Bay, and to Super Bowl IV title over Minnesota. He was hired to coach the expansion Dallas Texans in 1960, and remained head coach through 1974 well after the team moved to Kansas City in 1963. Stram has a 124-76-10 record with the Chiefs and in 17 seasons as a head coach was 131-97-10 in the regular season and 5-3 in the postseason. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2003. Patriots owner Robert Kraft said of Stram, "He was one of the pioneers of the American Football League and someone I admired as a fan long before I had the opportunity to ever meet him. In recent years, I had the opportunity to talk to him on many occasions. He was a man with a great spirit and lived life to the fullest." A private ceremony was planned. Brown retires a Raider Tim Brown signed one of those nifty one-day deals and retired with Oakland. The Heisman Trophy winner played 17 seasons, the first 16 with Oakland and played with former coach Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay in 2004. At 39 years-old, "Mr. Raider" holds all the Raider reception records over 240 games, and has the longest tenure as a player in Oakland history. Browns retires with 1,070 catches for 14,734 yards and 99 touchdowns with the Raiders, and with the Buccaneers, he had 24 catches for 200 yards and one touchdown. Brown is tied for third all-time with Steve Largent for 100 touchdowns. The team plans to honor Brown before the opening of training camp at the Napa Valley facility. Training Camp Division Talk: The AFC West
AFC West
2004 Division Champion: San Diego The AFC West has the most competition within. 2004 predicted both AFC wild cards to come out of the West, and though only one did, since KC came up short, look for more close divisional games in 2005. Denver made a big surprise, and gamble on the final pick of Day 1 of the Draft when they took Maurice Clarett at the 101st pick. Clarett has tried to get into the NFL early for over two years. It's been nearly three since he played. He sued the league all the way to the Supreme Court, though if he'd just played by the rules, played college through his Junior, maybe Senior year, he'd have a degree, more playing time, in better playing shape (he was heavy during the combines and trials), and might have gone in the first round, maybe even second overall. What's the different between number 2 and number 101? Probably around $30 million. In San Diego, Drew Brees was supposed to be on his last legs. He came out of the gates firing, holding on to the starting QB position for the Chargers all season, keeping 2004 first round pick Philip Rivers on the bench to get Doug Flutie cups of Gatorade while Flutie called plays into Brees. Flutie is now gone from Diego, now in New England, and that leaves Brees without a sounding board and veteran mentor. Can Brees repeat his performance from last season, and can he keep an anxious fourth overall pick patiently waiting on the sidelines, or will the Chargers deal Rivers and keep the faith with Brees for the long term? At that price, Rivers has to be the future somewhere. Brees never excelled in the NFL, until 2004, so there is a history that isn't that attractive. Should Brees continue the upswing, he'll be marketable next year for a starting position elsewhere, possibly even Cleveland or Jacksonville, if San Diego decides to hold on to Rivers rather than deal him. It's far too soon to predict a quarterback need for 2006 anywhere. The possibilities are endless, but the career of Drew Brees is his to command. LaDainian Tomlinson is dynamic enough of a runner and playmaker to make a serious difference. But Marty Schottenheimer has never orchestrated a winner right to the Super Bowl, but that isn't from lack of trying. He's been to conference championship games before, but could never push the envelope. Those odds stack up in front of Martyball more than anything else. Proof came in Wild Card Weekend when the Chargers could not even take advantage of lousy kicking from the Jets to win. The upset of the playoffs managed to keep the Chargers' magical season in the locker room. Odds had San Diego able to take their season all the way to Gillette Stadium for a Conference championship game against New England. None of that happened. Instead it was the Jets to move on (where the lousy kicking caught right back up with them in a loss to a poorly played Pittsburgh team). Oakland looked watery under Norv Turner in 2004 (5-11). They'll continue to be watery. Kerry Collins is one of those strong armed quarterbacks who plays league journeyman. Collins is a manageable quarterback, and now is level-headed enough (or at least we hope) to keep Oakland in check on offense. He can get the ball to receivers, and now has Randy Moss to throw to, baring Moss doesn't decide to leave the game early for whatever reason Moss feels necessary. Moss is a playmaker who could move that offense enough to make Oakland threatening to the West. The league gets a early look at the matchup on opening night against New England. Given the right grove, Oakland's offense could spend a lot of time picking apart weak a secondary. But Collins is not top shelf, and can make bad mistakes in the pocket. To make matters more interesting, while adding Moss, the Raiders lost cornerbacks Ray Buchanan and Phillip Buchanon, as well as Frank Middleton and Rich Gannon. The Oakland defense is significantly weaker in skills and veteran depth. But the offense picked up LaMont Jordan at running back to help Moss support Collins who had 21 TDs and 20 INTs last season. In Kansas City, Dick Vermeil and Trent Green are not getting any younger. For the past few seasons, the Chiefs were favorites to win the Super Bowl. The reality is that they've barely made the playoffs. Vermeil is in the final year (?) of his contract. If the Chiefs can't push their way through to Super Bowl XL, The Hunt Group may replace Vermeil with someone else. The offensive double-shot is the running back tandem of Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. Vermeil could be coaching his final season, and Trent Green is looking at the backend of his career. The Chiefs will very likely turn to youth in 2006, both in the quarterback position and head coaching slot. If Vermeil and Green are going to do something, they must do it now. After last season, the rumor mill kicked in about whether Denver would try a coaching change. Mike Shanahan is still in charge, but Pat Bowen has to have him on a shorter leash. Even though they are good friends, Shanahan is making an awful lot of money, and while he led the Broncos to back-to-back Super Bowls, he did it with John Elway at the helm, and that was a long time ago in NFL years. In the time honored tradition of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately, the answer in Denver is: not much. Denver has tools, but the guys who got the trophies are gone: Elway, Terrell Davis, Ed McCaffery, Shannon Sharp. Now Jake Plummer leads the offense, but he's not living up to his whopper of an over-paid seven year, $30 million contract. Plummer is good passing on the move, but dismal in the pocket (27 TDs, 20 INTs). For the last two seasons Denver has wild carded themselves into the postseason, and both years they got trumped in Indianapolis. What Denver needs is some home field at Mile High, which is not a guarantee anymore. Teams come in to Denver stronger, better equipped to handle the elevation, and Investco Field isn't the same home field as Mile High Stadium was in the heyday. Plus, the Broncos aren't that good; they've just managed to hang on and deliver a mediocre season without looking like the league push over. They are coming into training camp with five running backs. Most teams have two and a fullback, so it'll be interesting to see how that plays itself out. Plummer is also armed with a couple of aging wide receivers out to prove themselves in a league full of new breed receivers. The first is long-time Bronco Rod Smith, on the downside of his career. The second, provided he makes it through camp is the GOAT (Greatest of All-Time), Jerry Rice, who many say should have hung his cleats up. But Rice wants to play one more season, and Shanahan is giving him a shot during camp. The AFC West has four capable teams of running into the playoffs. As in past season, the chances that both AFC wild card teams will come from the west are pretty good. None of the teams look like sub-.500s, and the inter-divisional battle is going to be heavy. The AFC West is going to have to look other places to get ahead - AFC games and road games will be the key for the AFC West teams to gain ground on one another. That said, if one of the teams can split the series with two divisional opponents and sweep the third, we'll have our divisional champ. Of course a 6-0 sweep in the division spells volumes for postseason play. Oakland clearly needs scorers. No one had double digits for touchdowns in 2004. Jerry Porter led the team with 9, and the currently inactive Tyrone Wheatley had 4. KC managed better with Priest Holmes rushing for 13 TDs before injury, and Green spread the ball around the receiver corps. In Chargerland, Tolminson and Antonio Gates led the charge (no pun intended) with 17 and 13 respectively, but numbers drop dramatically from there. Denver had consistency, but no clear tour-de-force scoring machine. The offenses must score more points and spread the ball around in 2005 in order to get past the tougher teams, most of which are outside the division. But their strength outside the division is the test. The AFC West plays a lot of AFC and NFC East teams, including the two Super Bowl teams New England and Philly. To add insult to injury, most of those games are road games. There are 40 non-divisional opponents. The schedules for the AFC West teams have them traveling to the east coast multiple times. Denver has the toughest duty, traveling to the east coast four times, where the rest of the AFC West travels only three times. Oakland starts is off on the season opener in New England, possibly giving them the best advantage of all the east coast travelers, with that date being the first game with ten days before the next game. The Chargers play the most playoff teams with seven (Denver twice), five of them on the road. Clearly this is an uphill battle for the Chargers. Kansas City also plays seven playoff teams, counting Denver and Diego twice, yet five are at home, including three of the East opponents, New England, New Jersey/B, and Philly. Denver gets off light, playing five playoff teams, with all but the second San Diego game at home. These non-divisional games could be the edge that gives us the AFC West champs. Next Week: NFC South Top 1. Jan Ulrich's quote of Lance Armstrong is classic: "He's just too strong." 2. Nothing would be sweeter than seeing some injuries for the Broncos wide receiver corps and Jerry Rice having a helluva retirement tour blazing the sky with nice, solid, top ten numbers. But I see one of those one day contracts being signed in August so he can retire a 49er. 3. Mike Shanahan has got to be nervous about Jake Plummer being about to get the job done. What made Shanahan think Plummer could get the job done in the first place. 4. Speaking of first place, how about them Red Sox? 5. Happy retirement, Tim Brown. ejh11 July 2005 |
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